The Commonwealth Bank’s chief economist, Michael Blythe, outlined a positive five year economic scenario for Australia when he spoke with ABIE members and the bank’s guests at The Peninsula Hotel on Thursday, 28th May, 2015.
He described Australia’s 23 years of unbroken economic growth as impressive, adding that he believed Australia will set a new global record if growth continues until 2020. He said the country retained its Triple AAA rating in the face of a “fair degree of pressure”.
However he pointed to slowing economic growth and rising unemployment as potential problems, although, he added, “no-one is forecasting recession.”
“The drop in commodity prices has been a strain on households”, he said, “and though job losses in mining and construction, will dampen the economy, I believe Australia will remain the biggest exporter of iron ore, and will become the biggest exporter of LNG.”
Looking at economic areas other than mining, he pointed out that a record number of education visas will be issued in 2015, while the number of Chinese tourists to Australia had risen to 800,000.
“There will be growth”, he said, “but the commodity price boom will not be repeated. If we want growth, we will have to pursue it.”
He signaled that US interest rates will rise for the first time in nine years, leading to a weaker Australian dollar.
Mr Blythe’s presentation was followed by a cocktail reception in the mezzanine area of The Peninsula Hotel where over 30 ABIE members and Commonwealth Bank guests had the opportunity to meet, exchange and further discuss and debate Mr Blythe’s economic forecast.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia is ABIE France’s annual sponsor and we would like to thank them for hosting this very informative, enlightening presentation and convivial networking cocktail.